New data on the eve of the midterm elections point to a Republican sweep of the six seats needed to reclaim a Senate majority. The Washington Post reports three election models – its own and those of Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight and the New York Times – all showing . . . #youdecide
Republicans are 66% favorites to win a Senate majority. The GOP holds advantages in Arkansas, Colorado, and Louisiana.
Republicans on average are up 8% point over Democrats — a statistically significant lead; whereas a 1-2% difference (more or less) often results in a coin-flip.
Forward looking predictions are 70%+ shot at Republicans winning Senate races in (the aforementioned) Arkansas, Colorado, and Louisiana; and also Montana, South Dakota and West Virginia.
In Kentucky, Incumbent Senate Minority Leader Senator Mitch McConnell (R) has a 93% chance of beating challenger Alison Lundergan Grimes (D).
In Alaska, Challenger Dan Sullivan (R) is favored 79% to win over incumbent Senator Mark Begich (D).
In Georgia, business owner David Perdue – U.S. Senate (R) is favored 58% to 68% to beat Michelle Nunn (D).
In Iowa, Joni Ernst (R) has a 71% to 89% chance of beatinig Bruce Braley (D).
In Kansas, Incumbent Pat Roberts for Senate 2014 (R) faces independent challenger Greg Orman for U.S. Senate but is 98% favored to win.